He also was an associate editor at 5280 and a reporter for the Vail Daily. Forecasts are calling for 4.1 million acre-feet of water to flow into Lake Powell from April to July this year, but water managers are obligated to release more than 7 million acre-feet out of the lake. An acre-foot is the amount of water needed to fill one acre of land to a height of one foot. There is approximately an 80 percent probability that a future elevation will fall inside the range of the minimum and maximum inflow scenarios. Lake Powell has fallen victim to excessive water use as a 20-year drought parches the region. Lukas noted that the dry soil conditions are factored into the NOAA runoff predictions from the get-go so there shouldnt necessarily be any big surprises with that particular variable. But the region is battling a multidecade drought with rain harder to come by. Additionally, there are possible inflow scenarios that would result in reservoir elevations falling outside the ranges indicated in these reports. In the image acquired on May 1, 2004, the reservoirs northwestern branch is isolated from the main reservoir; the shallow water upstream could not crest raised areas in the lakebed. google_color_text = "000000"; water-data.com Lake Powell Water Database. Using the approach described in the immediately preceding paragraph, the August 2022 24-Month Study projected the January 1, 2023, Lake Powell elevation to be less than 3,525 feet. A visual history of the water level of each of our Lake Powell trips over the past three years. With low-runoff conditions and . For additional information, see the following news release: https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/#/news-release/4196. The period 2000-2022 is the lowest 23-year period since the closure of Glen Canyon Dam in 1963, with an average unregulated inflow of 8.29 maf, or 93 percent of the 30-year average (1991-2020). google_ad_client = "pub-0146338466817273"; The last couple months have steadied out a little bit, Cody Moser, a senior hydrologist with NOAA forecast center, said during a recent web briefing to review the most recent report. These projections are critical for planning for an increasingly dry future in the Colorado River Basin, but a new paper from Utah State University says the model may still underestimate the risk. The January 2023 24-Month Study probable maximum and the February 2023 24-Month Study probable minimum inflow scenarios were used to determine the range of probable outcomes. The nation's second-largest reservoir is under pressure from climate change and steady demand, and is now . Fresh Water News is an independent, nonpartisan news initiative of Water Education Colorado. hVmO0+_'"Bi?H!R`Mkwj3#tq@x k8,Q\yDIU>H The NOAA forecast center begins releasing monthly water supply forecasts for the Colorado River Basin in December. Since the beginning of water year 2000, total Colorado Basin storage has experienced year to year increases and decreases in response to wet and dry hydrology, ranging from a high of 94 percent of capacity at the beginning of 2000 to the now current level of 33 percent of capacity at the beginning of water year 2023. Lake Powell, Printable Version //2006-10-04: news Wang suggests updating the reference period more frequently or using the last 20 years as the baseline. Click for Details, Current Snowpack Conditions for Upper Colorado Basin. Under system normal conditions, fluctuations for regulation are typically short lived and generally balance out over the hour with minimal or no noticeable impacts on downstream river flow conditions. Arizona Public Radio | Your Source for NPR News, PublishedFebruary 28, 2022 at 5:00 AM MST. We need to get ourselves prepared," he says. The Water Desks mission isto increase the volume, depth and power of journalismconnected to Western water issues. On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. As of Wednesday, the water level was 3,524.22 feet. Encompassing all or parts of Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas, Utah and Wyoming. (For comparison, the 1991-2020 total water year average is 9.60 maf.) 2022, a day after Southern California delared a water . google_ad_client = "pub-0146338466817273"; In January, following the wet December Moser noted, the NOAA forecast called for 98% of the 30-year average to reach Powell. The reduction of releases from Glen Canyon Dam in water year 2022 (resulting in increased storage in Lake Powell) will not affect future operating determinations and will be accounted for as if this volume of water had been delivered to Lake Mead. Cheap sewer pipe repairs can push toxic fumes into homes and schools heres Hard water: In these metro neighborhoods, few drink the tap water. The forecast for water year 2023 unregulated inflow to Lake Powell, issued on January 5, 2023, by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, projects that the most probable (median) unregulated inflow volume in water year 2023 will be 9.5 maf (99 percent of average). This is a decrease of 3.33 maf over the total storage at the beginning of water year 2022 when total system storage was 22.87 maf (39 percent of capacity). Water supply forecast volumes decreased across most of the region, Moser said during the webinar. 159 0 obj <> endobj The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powell's water levels. At the beginning of the series in 1999, water levels in Lake Powell were relatively high, and the water was a clear, dark blue. Among the dams on the Colorado is Arizona's Glen Canyon Dam, which creates Lake Powell. In the early 21st century, this modern marvel of engineering faced an ancient enemy: prolonged drought in the American Southwest. For additional information, the news release can be found here: https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/4294. New 1991-2020 Averages being used this year. These projections are critical for planning for an increasingly dry future in the Colorado River Basin, but a new paper from Utah State University says the model may still underestimate the risk. But a long-term drying trend began in the year 2000. Water managers, who . Shortages have been implemented by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation in areas like Arizona as water levels in the reservoir have consistently dropped for the past 10 years. But it is concerning. SW Water Vapor, Accessibility of Launch Ramps, Primitive Launches and Other Sites Shifting the period of record decreased the average unregulated inflow 1.20 maf. According to the Bureau of Reclamation's website (on March 22, 2022), Lake Colorado River Basin Water Management: Evaluating and Adjusting to Hydroclimatic Variability. 15 Day Weather Forecast SW Satellite Weather SW Water Vapor Lake Powell is down 6.18 feet from one year ago. The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powells water levels. The basin states, in a response letter, expressed concern that the water level of Lake Powell would decline below critical elevations, making the dam inoperable. Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section). 192 0 obj <>stream Flight Center. Mitchell declined to discuss the pending drought operations plan. The Colorado River cuts through dry land that was once covered by Lake Powell on September 7, 2022, near Hite, Utah. Click below for water level and accessibity updates about the launch ramps and services near you. Based on current inflow forecasts, the current projected end of water year 2023 total Colorado Basin reservoir storage is approximately 20.93 maf (36 percent of total system capacity). 8_9dyB`n`` +30|@,6a # "I would be reluctant to limit it to years just since 2000, because I think there is some value in acknowledging the variability that goes on in our basin," he says. Even in low emission climate scenarios (forecasts that are based on the assumption that future carbon dioxide emissions will increase relatively slowly), models predict precipitation may decline by 20-25 percent over most of California, southern Nevada, and Arizona by the end of this century. But the declining water already has drained some of the fun, he said. The picture was much different 59 years ago, when the giant storage reservoir on the Colorado River was filling, its electricity helping power the West and the revenue from its power sales helping fund endangered fish protection programs across the Colorado River Basin. Under a Drought Contingency Plan adopted in 2019, approximately 500 thousand acre-feet (kaf) of water will come from Flaming Gorge Reservoir, located approximately 455 river miles upstream of Lake Powell. To view the most current reservoir elevation projections, click on: Lake Powell Elevation Projections. google_ad_format = "160x600_as"; %%EOF Part of the Glen Canyon Conservancy Family, Utah D.O.T Charles Hall Ferry for UT Route 276. The Upper Basin reservoirs have already provided 161,000 acre-feet of water pursuant to the imminent need provision of the Drought Response Operations Agreement, including 36,000 acre-feet from Blue Mesa Reservoir in Colorado. Reclamation will also ensure all appropriate consultation with Basin Tribes, the Republic of Mexico, other federal agencies, water users and non-governmental organizations with respect to implementation of these monthly and annual operations. Last Reading: 3522.33 on Feb 12, 2023. The draft plan is expected to be released next week, according to Becki Bryant, a spokeswoman for Reclamations Upper Colorado River Region. Specifically, Reclamation modeled operations in WY 2023 as follows in the August and September 24-Month Studies: In accordance with the May 3rd Letter, consistent with the provisions of the 2007 Interim Guidelines, and to preserve the benefits to Glen Canyon Dam facilities from 2022 Operations into 2023 and 2024, Reclamation will consult with the Basin States on monthly and annual operations. It wasnt just the Powell number that dipped, although the amount of runoff that makes its way to Powell each year is considered a good barometer for conditions basinwide. The most probable inflow scenario reflects a median hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 50 percent of the time. The forecast isnt great, said Kyle Whitaker, Colorado River Manager for the Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District, one of the largest diverters of water in the headwaters region of the river. Up to 80 percent of water use in the basin is for agricultural purposes, but urban water conservation serves an important purpose, too. google_color_link = "0000FF"; Telling stories that matter in a dynamic, evolving state. Despite those releases, Powell dropped below 3,525 last month, hitting 3,523, another historic drought landmark. Were an initiative of theCenter for Environmental Journalismat the University of Colorado Boulder. google_ad_channel ="2397569894"; Scientists say the current drought is the driest on record in the last twelve hundred years. The declines were first apparent in the side canyons feeding the reservoir which thinned and then shortened. The March 2023 releases are anticipated to fluctuate between a low of 5,276 cfs to a high of 9,641 cfs. Both Moser and Lukas said that dry soil moisture conditions across the Colorado River Basin, which can sponge off valuable runoff before the water makes it into rivers and streams, wont be quite as bad as last year but will still be a negative factor. Sunlight brightens plateaus and southeast-facing slopes, casting shadows on the northern and western faces of the rugged landscape. (At normal water levels, both rivers are essentially part of the reservoir.) Hourly releases during February 2023 will fluctuate from a low of approximately 5,797 cfs during the early morning hours to a high of 10,091 cfs during the afternoon and evening hours. (Due to the angle of sunlight, this image may cause an optical illusion known as relief inversion.). google_ad_height = 600; The Colorado River flows from the Rocky Mountains in Colorado through the southwestern United States. Feet above sea level Change - Feet difference over previous . At the same time, electric utilities across the West are looking for other green options and hoping that hydropower production wont stop altogether. GCC is the official nonprofit partner of Glen Canyon National Recreation Area & Rainbow Bridge National Monument. Water Data for 20 days surrounding Feb 28, 2022. Depending on the severity of the system emergency, the response from Glen Canyon Dam can be significant, within the full range of the operating capacity of the power plant for as long as is necessary to maintain balance in the transmission system. The Colorado River flows in from the east around Mille Crag Bend and is swallowed by the lake. The forecast estimated that the amount of water that will flow into Lake Powell this spring and summer will be about 59% of average, based on 30 years of data from 1991 to 2020. Previous forecasts showed this was possible and the Bureau of Reclamation announced on March 4 that a . A 59% flow into Powell translates to about 3.8 million acre-feet. 0 Last Reading: 3521.11 on Feb 27, 2023 Powell was last within 2" of this elevation on Feb 26, 2023 There are currently 1,734,731,016,499 gallons of water in Lake Powell! The sediment-filled Colorado River appeared green-brown. Another 480 kaf will be left in Lake Powell by reducing Glen Canyon Dams annual release volume from 7.48 maf to 7.0 maf, as outlined in the 2007 Interim Guidelines that control operations of Glen Canyon Dam and Hoover Dam. %PDF-1.7 % The northwestern side branch of Lake Powell remained cut off from the rest of the reservoir. An initiative of the Center for Environmental Journalism at the University of Colorado Boulder. Fish & Wildlife Service Endangered Species Success Stories. The amount of water predicted to flow into Lake Powell this year is down slightly from the previous month, according to the May report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. Lake Powell Water Supply Outlook, February 1, 2022 Note: This publication is scheduled for revision. These instantaneous release adjustments stabilize the electrical generation and transmission system and translate to a range of about 1,300 cfs above or below the hourly scheduled release rate. Lake Powell has several launch ramps along its 186-mile length. google_color_link = "0000FF"; This level is actually .02 feet . Powell was last within 2" of this elevation on Feb 11, 2023 There are currently 1,757,155,460,140 gallons of water in Lake Powell! In July 2022, the lake reached a historic low of 1,040 feet above sea level. Lake Powell water level at Wahweap Marina in September 2021 | Photo by Bureau of Reclamation, St. George News . As air warms over time, less precipitation makes it to the reservoirs due to evaporation. Reclamation will continue to consult with the Basin States, Basin Tribes, the Republic of Mexico and other partners on Colorado River operations to consider and determine whether additional measures should be taken to further enhance the preservation of these benefits, as well as recovery protocols, including those of future protective measures for both Lakes Powell and Mead. The lake held just 30 percent of its capacity. The May report, released last week, is the final runoff prediction for the season. Close Become a member Login My Account Logout Search for:Search News Education Health Coloradans Equity Sun Investigation Crime and Courts Culture Sports Its better than last year, but well just have to see what the next two to four weeks holds for precipitation.. "Its always good to plan for the worst, right? Last July, to protect the 3,525 buffer zone, Reclamation ordered emergency water releases from three reservoirs in the Upper Colorado River Basin. System emergencies occur fairly infrequently and typically require small responses from Glen Canyon Dam. Official Glen Canyon National Recreation Area Changing Lake Levels Info. This was the lowest water levels have been since the lake was first constructed in the 1930s. Because the 2022 operations were designed to protect critical elevations at Lake Powell, Reclamation will implement Lower Elevation Balancing Tier operations in a way that continues to protect these critical elevations, or preserves the benefits of the 2022 operations to protect Lake Powell, in water year 2023. Click for Details, Current Snowpack Conditions for Upper Colorado Basin. In the latter half of the decade, the drought eased somewhat. U.S. Arizona Drought Climate Change Water Conservation. The water level in Lake Powell was at a record low when rain and snow began to fall across the Colorado River Basin in October, soaking dry soils ahead of the winter season. Upper Colorado River Basin regularly experiences significant year to year hydrologic variability. Graphical view of Lake Powell water data. The most recent data is from Monday, February 27th, 2023. The reservoir's levels rise after consistent rain or snowpack melt in the area. By Anna Skinner On 1/18/23 at 4:42 PM EST. Soil moisture conditions have improved over the last year across most of Colorados Western Slope, but thats not necessarily saying much because of how bad soil moisture conditions were heading into last years snowmelt runoff season, Moser said. google_ad_channel ="2397569894"; Please contact the Operations Group via e-mail at ResourceMgr@usbr.gov for additional information. //2006-10-04: news Antelope Point Marina on Feb. 3, 2022, in the Glen Canyon National Recreation Area near Page. Lake Mead's water levels . The Bureau of Reclamation announced on May 3, 2022, two separate urgent drought response actions that will help prop up Lake Powell by nearly 1 million acre-feet (maf) of water over the next 12 months (May 2022 through April 2023). It took decades for Lake Powell to reach catastrophically low levels, and according to one expert, it'll take a long time to restore the levels, too. The forecast is changing daily and there are still a lot of variables, said Lisa Meiman, a spokeswoman for WAPA. 2018 brought some relief after a wet winter. Becky Mitchell is director of the Colorado Water Conservation Board, the states lead water planning agency. The DROA coordination will continue until either (i) the minimum probable projected elevation remains above 3,525 feet for 24 months or (ii) the process moves to the next step when the most probable projected elevation indicates Powell elevations below 3,525 feet and a Drought Response Operations Plan is developed. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for elevations above 4000.Heavy accumulations of 10-20 are forecast above 6000, 3-8 to 4500 and several inches to valley floors. However, the Bureau of Reclamation's 24-month forecast that was just released at the end of last week projects Lake Mead to be at 1,041.10 feet in January 2023. Drop us a note at tips@coloradosun.com. We have to take a strong look at what we will do in the unlikely event that Lake Powell stops producing hydropower, said WAPAs Meiman. This is the big warning bell.. Our editorial policy and donor list can be viewed atwateredco.org. View CFS Last 14 Measurements Lake Powell is down -1.03 feet over these measurements Averages for February 27th Last 10 February 27th's data records She also sits on the Upper Colorado River Commission. In the early years of this image series, water levels began to drop. endstream endobj startxref Low water effects to launch ramps and services top Lake Powell Elevation (05/18/2022) 3526.05 ft Stay in the know! "As a result of this update, the median water year 2022 inflow forecast into Lake Powell decreased by 800,000 acre-feet," USBR stated in a press release distributed Thursday. //-->, Printable Version Antelope Point Launch Ramp Bullfrog Main Launch Ramp (2007). Along its route, the river passes through an elaborate water-management system designed to tame the yearly floods from spring snowmelt and to provide a reliable supply of water for residents as far away as California. It took decades for Lake Powell to reach catastrophically low levels, and according to one expert . Chris Outcalt covers Western water issues for The Colorado Sun. water-data.com LakePowell Water Database . A century of river flow records combined with an additional four to five centuries of tree-ring data show that the droughts over the past two decades were not unusual; longer and more severe droughts are a regular part of the climate variability in that part of the continent. There is a 10 percent chance that inflows could be higher than the current maximum probable forecast and a 10 percent chance that inflows could be lower than the minimum probable forecast. Human actions created the Salton Sea, Californias largest lake heres Scientists studying water supply focus on weeks following peak snowpack. Sunday, February 26, 2023 12:00:00 AM Level is 178.87 feet To view the current inflow forecast relative to past inflows, click on Lake Powell Inflow Forecast. That reference period is updated once a decade; it now begins in the 1990s. A powerful winter storm will enter AZ early Tuesday night with rain and snow showers increasing across the region after midnight. For Details, Current Snowpack Conditions for Upper Colorado Basin 05/18/2022 ) 3526.05 ft Stay in the year.... Still slightly below normal across western Colorado, particularly in the Area for revision Newsweek! Early 21st century, this image may cause an optical illusion known as inversion. Feet above sea level change - feet difference over previous becky mitchell is director of the state visual. 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